Can Solar Energy Completely Replace Fossil Fuel and Other Sources?

SolarByTheWatt.com — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 00:12:48 +0000

Is solar energy capable of providing so much power that to offset the need for use of fossil fuels?

We want to look at the needs of energy of the United States and the world and compare with the practical size installations of solar power stations needed to replace that.

The question of completely replacing all fossil fuel or all other sources of electricity and other energy is much more complex than just looking at the numbers. Probably replacing the other sources in just electricity production is simpler but still in addition to simply adding capacity, changes of large scale are needed in the national grid configuration.

Replacing resources used to produce other energy, other than electricity, is even more complex. That will mean changing how energy is being transported and used. While electricity is a type of energy easy to transport what may need to be changed is the way it is utilized at the end consumer – industrial, residential or transportation. That will involve changes and costs again more than the ones related to replacing the source with solar power stations.

The current electricity generation capacity in the US is about 1TW (1,000,000 MW). About 395 GW (1GW = 1,000 MW) is from natural gas, 315 GW from coal, 100 GW from nuclear, 100 GW from hydroelectric 56GW from oil products, 30 GW from renewables other than hydro, and other small components.

We will look at these numbers separately to see what it will take to replace the more urgent ones of them – coal, oil etc.

The US total energy consumption, not just electricity is 3.5 TW. Most of the difference between just electricity and this number is made up of energy produced from oil so we are not going to try to break this down. We will look at this as one of our theoretical targets.

The world total energy consumption is at around 16 TW of which 4.5TW is electricity.

So, lets build a scale of the different stages that theoretically can be achieved in solar replacing other energy sources.

For our calculations we will assume installation / construction cost for one 1MW of $5m. This is a number ($5/Wp) we think smaller than the recent historic numbers for cost to install solar capacity. But we want to factor for future falling prices of solar modules and other components and overall improving efficiency in the industry. Anyone is free to factor the $ numbers we have if they believe $7/Wp or $10Wp is a better number.

For surface area needs we will assume 200 kW per acre. With different design and technology 800kW per acre is possible but we will go with the low number on this to be on the safe side. Since 1 sq mile is 640 acres, with our assumption we will have 128 MW per sq mile.

To Replace	We Need Solar Capacity, GW	That May Cost, $bn	Will Take Approximately Surface Area, sq miles	Approximately the area size of (examples)
Oil used for electricity production in the US	56	280 (notice this is less than the stimulus package!) like GDP of Ireland, 2% of GDP of USA	438	Guam, Cairo, half the size of Luxemburg or simply area 20×20 miles
Oil and coal used for electricity production in the US	371	1,855 like GDP of Spain or Italy, 13% of GDP of USA	2,900	Sao Paulo, Puerto Rico, Cyprus or Lebanon or simply area 55×55 miles
Oil, coal and natural gas used for electricity production in the US	766	3,830 like GDP of Germany or Japan, 28% of GDP of USA	6,000	Connecticut, less than New Jersey, New York City, Swaziland, Kuwait, Fiji, New Caledonia or simply area 80×80 miles
Total electric generation capacity of the US	1,000	5,000 like GDP of Japan, 36% of GDP of USA	7,800	Belize, Djibouti, Macedonia (Republic of), less than New Jersey, or simply area 90×90 miles
Total US Energy Consumption not just Electricity	3,500	17,500 like GDP of the European Union, 32% of GDP of the world	27,300	UAE, Austria, Serbia, less than South Carolina, 10% of Texas or simply area 165×165 miles
Total Electricity Generation Capacity in the World	4,500	22,500 1.3 times the GDP of the European Union, 41% of GDP of the world	35,000	Hungary, South Korea, Cuba, Bulgaria, Maine, 13% of Texas, 30% of Arizona or simply area 190×190 miles
Total Energy Consumption in the World not just Electricity	16,000	80,000 1.5 times the GDP of the world	125,000	Norway, Malaysia, Finland, Germany, a bit less than Japan, a bit more than New Mexico or simply area 350×350 miles

We tried to display this comparison between energy currently produced by different sources and capacity needed in solar in gigawatts (GW), cost of installation in billion dollars ($bn), land area needed in sq. miles, marks of different countries GDP, and land areas of different geographic locations (certain US states in this case).

Click here or on the graph below to see it in full scale.

On the above diagram, since it uses a linear scale for the capacity, cost and land and the large values (world energy needs) are much larger than the smaller ones (oil and coal for electricity in the US), the small values are not given a good presentation. So here we put the same numbers on a logarithmic scale for the solar capacity, cost and land requirements. We have much better clarity on the comparisons now for the smaller values.

Click here or on the graph below to see it in full scale.

We think in general our study is much more important in reference to the smaller values. They deal with some levels of scale of capacity that are practically easier to achieve in terms of replacing with solar. We are talking about the unquestionably very polluting coal and oil burning for electricity. Again – look at the numbers to replace oil products used for electricity generation in the US we only need $280b and spending that will create jobs, help growth in technology and give all sorts of other economic and social benefits.

The numbers given in our study in reference to the higher levels – world electricity and total energy consumption are simply for getting a better view of the comparative size of all levels.

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Can Solar Energy Completely Replace Fossil Fuel and Other Sources?