Is solar energy capable of providing so much power that to offset the need for use of fossil fuels?
We want to look at the needs of energy of the United States and the world and compare with the practical size installations of solar power stations needed to replace that.
The question of completely replacing all fossil fuel or all other sources of electricity and other energy is much more complex than just looking at the numbers. Probably replacing the other sources in just electricity production is simpler but still in addition to simply adding capacity, changes of large scale are needed in the national grid configuration.
Replacing resources used to produce other energy, other than electricity, is even more complex. That will mean changing how energy is being transported and used. While electricity is a type of energy easy to transport what may need to be changed is the way it is utilized at the end consumer – industrial, residential or transportation. That will involve changes and costs again more than the ones related to replacing the source with solar power stations.
The current electricity generation capacity in the US is about 1TW (1,000,000 MW). About 395 GW (1GW = 1,000 MW) is from natural gas, 315 GW from coal, 100 GW from nuclear, 100 GW from hydroelectric 56GW from oil products, 30 GW from renewables other than hydro, and other small components.
We will look at these numbers separately to see what it will take to replace the more urgent ones of them – coal, oil etc.
The US total energy consumption, not just electricity is 3.5 TW. Most of the difference between just electricity and this number is made up of energy produced from oil so we are not going to try to break this down. We will look at this as one of our theoretical targets.
The world total energy consumption is at around 16 TW of which 4.5TW is electricity.
So, lets build a scale of the different stages that theoretically can be achieved in solar replacing other energy sources.
For our calculations we will assume installation / construction cost for one 1MW of $5m. This is a number ($5/Wp) we think smaller than the recent historic numbers for cost to install solar capacity. But we want to factor for future falling prices of solar modules and other components and overall improving efficiency in the industry. Anyone is free to factor the $ numbers we have if they believe $7/Wp or $10Wp is a better number.
For surface area needs we will assume 200 kW per acre. With different design and technology 800kW per acre is possible but we will go with the low number on this to be on the safe side. Since 1 sq mile is 640 acres, with our assumption we will have 128 MW per sq mile.
| To Replace | We Need Solar Capacity, GW | That May Cost, $bn | Will Take Approximately Surface Area, sq miles | Approximately the area size of (examples) |
| Oil used for electricity production in the US |
56 |
280 (notice this is less than the stimulus package!) like GDP of Ireland, 2% of GDP of USA |
438 |
Guam, Cairo, half the size of Luxemburg or simply area 20×20 miles |
| Oil and coal used for electricity production in the US |
371 |
1,855 like GDP of Spain or Italy, 13% of GDP of USA |
2,900 |
Sao Paulo, Puerto Rico, Cyprus or Lebanon or simply area 55×55 miles |
| Oil, coal and natural gas used for electricity production in the US |
766 |
3,830 like GDP of Germany or Japan, 28% of GDP of USA |
6,000 |
Connecticut, less than New Jersey, New York City, Swaziland, Kuwait, Fiji, New Caledonia or simply area 80×80 miles |
| Total electric generation capacity of the US |
1,000 |
5,000 like GDP of Japan, 36% of GDP of USA |
7,800 |
Belize, Djibouti, Macedonia (Republic of), less than New Jersey, or simply area 90×90 miles |
| Total US Energy Consumption not just Electricity |
3,500 |
17,500 like GDP of the European Union, 32% of GDP of the world |
27,300 |
UAE, Austria, Serbia, less than South Carolina, 10% of Texas or simply area 165×165 miles |
| Total Electricity Generation Capacity in the World |
4,500 |
22,500 1.3 times the GDP of the European Union, 41% of GDP of the world |
35,000 |
Hungary, South Korea, Cuba, Bulgaria, Maine, 13% of Texas, 30% of Arizona or simply area 190×190 miles |
| Total Energy Consumption in the World not just Electricity |
16,000 |
80,000 1.5 times the GDP of the world |
125,000 |
Norway, Malaysia, Finland, Germany, a bit less than Japan, a bit more than New Mexico or simply area 350×350 miles |
We tried to display this comparison between energy currently produced by different sources and capacity needed in solar in gigawatts (GW), cost of installation in billion dollars ($bn), land area needed in sq. miles, marks of different countries GDP, and land areas of different geographic locations (certain US states in this case).
Click here or on the graph below to see it in full scale.
On the above diagram, since it uses a linear scale for the capacity, cost and land and the large values (world energy needs) are much larger than the smaller ones (oil and coal for electricity in the US), the small values are not given a good presentation. So here we put the same numbers on a logarithmic scale for the solar capacity, cost and land requirements. We have much better clarity on the comparisons now for the smaller values.
Click here or on the graph below to see it in full scale.
We think in general our study is much more important in reference to the smaller values. They deal with some levels of scale of capacity that are practically easier to achieve in terms of replacing with solar. We are talking about the unquestionably very polluting coal and oil burning for electricity. Again – look at the numbers to replace oil products used for electricity generation in the US we only need $280b and spending that will create jobs, help growth in technology and give all sorts of other economic and social benefits.
The numbers given in our study in reference to the higher levels – world electricity and total energy consumption are simply for getting a better view of the comparative size of all levels.
Related Reading:
Solar Energy Nanotechnology Can Replace Fossil Fuels – SF Chronicle
Argument: Abundant solar energy can replace fossil fuels and slash emissions
Replacing fossil fuels: the scale of the problem
Alternative Sources of Energy Can Help to Save Our Planet
The potential of solar energy for replacing fossil fuels
newnet news – Scalable electric power from solar energy
Can alternative energy effectively replace fossil fuels
Solar Power – Europe Rallies Behind Nanotechnology To Wean World From Fossil Fuels
Resources:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epa_sum.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_use_in_the_United_States
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/ieoecg.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_area
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_area
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_areas_by_population
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
SolarByTheWatt.com
6 Comments
Josh Maxwell said :
March 5, 2009 at 12:31 am
I’ve been reading along for a while now. I just wanted to drop you a comment to say keep up the good work.
WSJ.com - Let’s Get Real About Renewable Energy - Article is closed for commenst so I am commenting here. « Spartacus said :
March 17, 2009 at 6:20 am
[...] http://SolarByTheWatt.com/2009/03/05/can-solar-replace-fossil-fuels/#secondgraph [...]
Alan Campbell said :
March 18, 2009 at 6:25 pm
I have heard and read a number of times that the US can only get about 20-25 % of its electricity from renewable sources and that for solar to ever produce a large amount of electricity the US will have to have better storage batteries. I do not know exactly what those who have large solar generating are doing about the fact they can not produce electricity on demand, but one thing I was wondering about is having them get some sort of backup generation for example if someone has 10 MW worth of solar generating equipment they might get 10 MW of diesel generators that have been converted to use used vegetable oil. They could set up a system to collect used vegetable oil to have a cheep, renewable fuel supply. That way they could generate 10 MW all day long for 8 hours a day. If you look at the usage of a utilities customers you will see that usage goes up for the first part of the morning. All the peak above where solar starts producing in the morning could be taken care of by solar alone. I do not have access to any date from a utility, but I believe it would be about 20% of the total electricity used. Because the solar person above would replace 10 MW of 24 hour a day electricity with 10 MW of 8 hour a day the utility could afford to pay them more per MW and still save money.
Alan Campbell
SolarByTheWatt.com said :
March 18, 2009 at 11:26 pm
Alan, absolutely. I do not know why the people who oppose solar and other renewables think and pull an argument that 100% won’t happen overnight or it will not be able to replace everything else because it is not available 24 hours. You are right, solar (and wind for that matter) can have it’s own place in providing (cheaper and cheaper as prices dramatically drop – we will see in our further surveys) energy when they are available. It just so happens that solar capacity in terms of the 24 hours day scale peaks when the demand in the grid peaks. Plus the US (continental) has 4 times zones with the added ability export / import from Canada and Mexico, which should add to the opportunities to use the peak production whenever it is available. Technologies for storing energy are gaining pace too so that will help in that respect. You are correct that other clean sources, while solar is getting bigger can compliment for when solar and wind is not available. You mention bio-diesel from vegetable oil. What abut bio-diesel from waste oils and fats that currently are basically poisonous pollution, but when burned in diesel electric generators create times less pollution than regular sources (oil and coal).
Other cleaner electric energy sources can be used to balance too – natural gas – though not renewable is very clean and is on demand. Though I am not a supporter od nuclear to be expanded, as we grow solar and wind nuclear can be used to balance off. My biggest problem with nuclear is the security exposure.
So, yes at least for the beginning or the small portion which solar is contributing now, we see great and easy ways to compliment it so that we are not short on energy in the nights.
It is al a question of balance and step by step move towards something that is obviously beter.
You mention about price. Here is my standing – if the grid pays the solar sources as much as their product costs plus some profit, solar is so small now that every one of us now has to pay like an additional $0.000001 per kilowatt hour. Why would we not do that to simply give incentive to the solar industry? Simple right?
I Was Too Early on Solar Power — Let’s Not Be Too Late « Spartacus said :
March 19, 2009 at 6:05 am
[...] Solar is very close to becoming of-scale, affordable, and able to replace at least the most critical out of the poisonous ways we make electricity now. – a comment on Robert Redford’s article on Huffington Post – I Was Too Early on Solar Power — Let’s Not Be Too Late [...]
SolarByTheWatt.com - Wind Capacity Needed to Replace Certain Levels Current Resources Used for Electricty Produciton said :
March 20, 2009 at 5:37 am
[...] Can Solar Energy Completely Replace Fossil Fuel and Other Sources? [...]
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